Maratheftis and Carlson: Bullish on Qatar.
Supporting Qatar’s direct for ‘AAA’ rating, tellurian banking hulk Standard Chartered has pronounced investment in infrastructure, not appetite prices, will be a pivotal to expansion and acceleration is headed towards “moderate” increase.
Moreover, shale gas expansion in a US and Europe is not going to be a “big problem” for Qatar, that is now looking eastwards than a west with appetite exports now destined to Asia, generally China amid rising demand.
“If we demeanour during a mercantile statistics alone, afterwards Qatar should be a good claimant for AAA rating,” StanChart tellurian conduct of macro investigate (global markets) Marios Maratheftis told a media in Doha.
Former financial apportion Yousef Hussein Kamal had final year pronounced Qatar justly deserved a place among a ‘AAA’ rating due to fundamental mercantile strengths.
However, Standard Poor’s subsequently pronounced Qatar’s “limited financial coherence and banks’ augmenting coherence on outmost financing” stood in a approach of lifting a rating from ‘AA’, a third-highest investment grade.
On expansion prospects, Maratheftis pronounced he would design Qatar to enhance 5.5% this year as non-hydrocarbon dynamics accelerate opposite “good expansion though no boom” in a US, Europe and Asia.
“Its (real sum domestic product growth) is flattering decent,” he added.
Asserting that Qatar’s opinion stays clever in 2014, StanChart pronounced LNG dynamics are approaching to sojourn healthy and will underpin clever mercantile and haven positions though non-hydrocarbon should be a primary expansion driver.
The bank foresee $34bn plan contracts to be awarded this year for pivotal infrastructure projects, besides a estimated $183bn designed between 2011 and 2016.
Government commitments on infrastructure in line with a 2022 World Cup and a Vision 2030 objectives have resulted in a “significant” collect adult in investment in a economy in 2013, StanChart said.
“We design these spending trends to continue though not to rise in 2014. A pivotal plea will be handling a opposite dynamics as a economy enters this expansion phase,” it said.
Contracts are being awarded though execution of projects is still a integrate of years away, might be this year finish or early subsequent year, StanChart Qatar CEO Charles Carlson said.
Highlighting that a World Cup is usually a partial of a (growth) story, Maratheftis pronounced investment in infrastructure is a pivotal expansion motorist in Qatar as good as in a Gulf and not a oil market, that according to him, has a “neutral impact” on a economy and a markets.
Any nation with resources should be diversifying and relocating adult a trust sequence since historically countries with hydrocarbons have underperformed those with no hydrocarbons, he said, awaiting oil prices to float around $100 a barrel.
On Qatar’s inflation, that has started rising, Maratheftis pronounced a pivotal determinant is rents, that are approaching to start rising subsequent year.
“We trust this will be driven a by a distance of a plan tube in Qatar, that will need an influx of expatriates, generating a new pool of tenants,” a bank said, forecasting acceleration to be during 3.5% this year opposite a progressing projection of 2.5%.
Unlike in a past when Qatar’s acceleration appearance to about 15%, he pronounced this time around both liquidity factors and food prices were not a factors of contribution.
Qatar’s consumer cost index acceleration rose 2.3% year-on-year in Jan especially on 4.8% burst in rents, fuel and appetite group, that has a top weight in a basket, Ministry of Development Planning and Statistics said. “It is positively not behind to 2007 and 2008 levels of high inflation,” he said, adding Qatar has left by cycles of high acceleration to deflation and afterwards to disinflation and now to “moderately” augmenting levels.